Vancouver Island gas prices will continue to climb for foreseeable future: expert

The price of fuel in the Capital Region jumped to 226.9 per litre on Tuesday, May 5, 2026.

Drivers in the Capital Region woke up to more pain at the pump Tuesday, as the price of gas jumped nearly 15 cents to 226.9 cents per litre.

Lloyd Gilmore is a resident of Sooke and says the increase in the cost of fuel has changed how often he is getting behind the wheel recently.

“I’m more conscious about it,” said Gilmore. “I’m planning my routes so I can get more things done in a day to try to conserve a bit of gas.”

And Gilmore isn’t optimistic there will be any real relief any time soon.

“I’m aware that it will probably go higher in the next few months,” he said, citing global events driving up local prices.

The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where 20 per cent of the world’s oil normally travels through has sent prices peaking.

Dan McTeague is the president of Canadians for Affordable Energy and says the conflict in the Middle East has throttled supply.

“I want people to understand that when you lose 1.2 billion barrels of oil as a shortage that is going to create a knock-on effect that is going to last several months,” said McTeague.

However, he predicts a brief reprieve at the pump later this week.

“Gas prices are set to drop a whopping seven cents a litre come Thursday,” he said.

That prediction comes after news two commercial ships managed to get through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. protection. But Mc Teague thinks the potential impact of that is being overestimated.

“I think they are completely misreading the tea leaves,” said McTeague.

His prediction for future fuel prices is that they will continue to escalate five to ten cents per litre each week for the foreseeable future.

He says there is currently no agreement on the table to resolve the conflict in the Middle East and therefore nothing concrete in place that will alleviate the current supply gap.

“Demand is outstripping the supply,” said McTeague “Governments around the world have used up their emergency reserves of oil and there really are no spare barrels out there.”

He calls this an extremely serious situation that many are underestimating especially with the cost of diesel increasing by nearly 40 per cent since the beginning of the conflict. That is the energy source that fuels delivery of the majority of food and goods.

“Nothing moves, nothing gets made, nothing happens in this world without a significant component of hydrocarbons which are most notably jet fuel and diesel,” he said.