Blockbuster $22B Shell-ARC deal bodes well for expansion to LNG Canada, experts say

Wudang, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, fills up at an LNG Canada facility, in an aerial view, in Kitimat, B.C., on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns

CALGARY — Global energy heavyweight Shell PLC's plan to buy one of Canada's biggest natural gas producers bolsters the likelihood an expansion of the LNG Canada plant will move ahead, industry experts say.

The deal to buy Calgary-based ARC Resources Ltd. is valued at $22 billion, accounting for the target company's debt. It gets Shell access to ARC's holdings in the prolific Montney shale formation that last year produced 374,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

And that means a steady supply to feed into the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C., where gas piped from northern B.C. and Alberta is chilled into a liquid state, loaded onto specialized tankers and sent to high-demand Asian markets.

"It's a good signal for the second phase of that LNG project that the government is looking to speed-track," said Tom Pavic, president of Sayer Energy Advisers in Calgary, calling the Montney a "world-class" resource with attractive economics.

Shell owns 40 per cent of LNG Canada alongside Japanese, Malaysian, Chinese and South Korean partners. The first phase of the project — the first of its kind in Canada — started up last summer. The consortium is contemplating doubling its capacity in a second phase, but a final investment decision has not yet been taken.

Phase 2 of LNG Canada has been referred to the federal major projects office, which was set up last year to speed along approvals for projects deemed in Canada's national interest. A project description on the office's website says an expansion would make LNG Canada the largest facility of its kind in the world and bring in $33 billion in private-sector capital to Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney called Shell's deal for ARC a "vote of confidence in Canada" as he headed to a cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning.

However, environmental advocates have decried the federal government's focus on fossil fuels in its push for "nation building" infrastructure.

The acquisition would elevate Shell from the seventh-biggest producer in the Montney to the No. 2 spot, behind Denver-based Ovintiv Inc., Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research, wrote in a report.

Ovintiv itself bulked up in the Montney earlier this year, closing its $3.8-billion acquisition of NuVista Energy Ltd.

Shell's interest in LNG Canada is an "important strategic component of the deal" as it would help get more Montney gas to global markets that would pay a premium price, wrote Dittmar.

"LNG Canada is geographically advantaged for shipping LNG to Asian markets that gives it a competitive edge over U.S. Gulf Coast competitors," he wrote.

The deal comes as the war in the Middle East rattles global energy markets. The fighting has knocked out production from Qatar, one of the world's biggest LNG players, and countries in Asia and Europe have seen massive natural gas price spikes as a result.

Analysts at CIBC World Markets wrote in a report last week that "Canadian LNG projects look increasingly attractive" amid the war, given this country's relatively low geopolitical risk.

Sanctioning of LNG Canada Phase 2, and the Ksi Lisims LNG plant proposed further up the West Coast near the Alaska border, have a "high likelihood" this year, the CIBC report said.

"The conflict in the Middle East highlights the advantages of Canadian LNG projects as reliable providers of liquefied natural gas from a stable jurisdiction with proximity to Asia."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2026.

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Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press