Mark Carney’s stunning victory at the Liberal leadership convention Sunday was perhaps not a surprise, but the decisiveness of the win seems to have shocked even political experts.
“I was very surprised by the extent. He took 85 per cent of the vote, which really took all the other three candidates to single digits,” said Christopher Adams, adjunct professor in the political science department at the University of Manitoba.
Carney won on the first ballot, in a race triggered earlier this year by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor was the perceived front-runner during the two-month campaign.
Adams believes much of Carney’s commanding win can be attributed to bubbling tensions south of the border and the leader at the centre of the economic clash.
“I think they elected him in part, in large part, because they feel he is the one to deal with Donald Trump,” Adams said.
Carney will now lead the party in the next federal election but he has yet to officially become prime minister.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indicated he will not stay on in a caretaker capacity, and plans to hand over the reins to his “duly elected successor in the coming days or week,” but a date for that transition has not been set.
It has not been confirmed which riding Carney will run in, but he has said he will campaign for a seat in the House of Commons in the next election.
Defining Trudeau’s legacy
Carney’s appointment ends Justin Trudeau’s nearly 10-year political reign, one that enjoyed years of success before scandals and challenges.
“He did run into problems with scandals over the SNC-Lavalin case in Quebec and also, I would say the WE scandal was a problem, so as he got past 2019, it became more problematic,” Adams said
In Adams’ estimation, Trudeau weathered the COVID-19 crisis ‘fairly well’ for a national leader, but the amount of debt Canada has taken on since continues to be a blight on the prime minister’s record.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finishes his speech at the Liberal leadership announcement in Ottawa on Sunday, March 9, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finishes his speech at the Liberal leadership announcement in Ottawa on Sunday, March 9, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Canadians’ dissatisfaction with the outgoing prime minister has been reflected in the polls, with roughly 20 points separating him from the Conservatives over the past two years.
It’s ground Carney has made quick work of making up, according to recent polling.
Still, Adams said Carney will have his work cut out for him separating himself from the outgoing prime minister.
“Of course, Poilievre will be linking him with Justin Trudeau as much as he can.”
Poilievre expected to pivot with election call
According to Adams, the Tory leader has had some of the metaphorical pillars knocked out from under him over the past few months of economic uncertainty.
He believes Poilievre has begun to pivot in recent rallies away from the ‘Axe the Tax’ tagline with an eye to the south.
“Four months ago, we didn’t have the Donald Trump tariffs and things like that, and so Poilievre has got to play a new strategy in attacking the new leader.”
- With files from CTV’s Rachel Lagacé and Rachel Aiello
