Trump’s actions against Canada, federal and provincial elections of equal importance to Ontarians: Nanos survey

Signage from Elections Ontario is seen at a polling station in Toronto (R). THE CANADIAN PRESS/Giordano Ciampini. U.S. President Donald Trump during an executive order signing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC (L). Al Drago/Bloomberg

As U.S. President Donald Trump confirms incoming tariffs on Canada and other countries are set to be implemented “on time,” Ontario voters say his actions against Canada are of equal importance to them as the outcomes of the upcoming provincial and federal elections.

According to a Nanos survey commissioned by CTV News, 45 per cent of Ontarians agree that choosing a new leader both federally and provincially are equally important to them as Trump’s actions against Canada. A further 27 per cent say the outcome of the federal election is more important to them, while just six per cent say the outcome of Ontario’s election is most important. Some 19 per cent say Trump’s threats are more important than the outcome of either election, while four per cent were unsure.

“Although the most popular response was that the federal and provincial elections and Trump were of equal importance, beyond that response, the provincial election trailed both the importance of the federal election and U.S. President Trump’s actions against Canada,” Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos said in a statement.

The survey finds women are most likely (53 per cent) to believe all three issues are of equal importance, while men were more split, with 36.6 per cent seeing all three as equally important. When looking at each of the three topics individually, the results of the next federal election ranked as the most important for Ontario voters across all genders and ages.

The federal Liberal Party will choose its successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on March 9 following his resignation earlier this year. Trudeau has also prorogued Parliament until March 24.

The next general federal election is currently scheduled for October, but it’s widely believed a snap election will be called once Parliament resumes. Opposition parties have vowed to bring down the Liberal minority government at the earliest opportunity once the House of Commons returns.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have also said Parliament must return so the federal government can pass new legislation to address U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threat.

On Monday, Trump confirmed that duties on products from Canada and Mexico will go forward on schedule on March 4.

A separate Nanos survey found that more than seven out of 10 Ontarians are concerned about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Ontario’s economy.

Nanos Research survey results released Tuesday included 920 Ontario voters who were interviewed between Feb. 20 and Feb. 22 both online and by phone. The survey has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

PCs have 16-point advantage

In separate nightly tracking results released Tuesday, Nanos, CTV News’ official pollster, found that among decided voters, the PCs now have a 16-point lead over the Liberals. About 45.4 per cent said they would vote PCs, 29.3 per cent said they support the Liberals, 18.8 per cent of respondents said they support the NDP and 4.3 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party.

Among decided and undecided voters, 41.1 per cent said they would vote PCs, 26.5 per cent said they support the Liberals, 17 per cent said they would vote for the NDP, 3.9 per cent said they would back the Green Party, two per cent selected “other,” and 9.5 per cent said they are still not sure.

Ford continues to lead in all regions of the province, with the exception of the city of Toronto.

Ford is also ahead of the other leaders by 17 points as the top choice for premier.

About 40.7 per cent of those surveyed said they would pick Ford to lead the province, followed by Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie at 24.1 per cent, NDP Leader Marit Stiles at 14 per cent, and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner at 7.2 per cent.

“Five per cent of Ontario residents chose none of them and 8.0 per cent were unsure whom they preferred,” the survey read.

The random survey of 938 Ontarians interview respondents between Feb. 22 and Feb. 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With files from CTV News Ottawa’s Stephanie Ha