PCs have 13-point lead over Liberals 1 week out from Ontario election: Nanos survey

Nanos Research has released survey results for the Ontario election race on Feb. 20, 2025.

With exactly one week to go until the Ontario election, Doug Ford’s PCs have a 13-point lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals as the two parties battle it out for support in the country’s largest city, a new survey from Nanos Research shows.

The nightly tracking, which surveyed 936 Ontario voters on Feb. 16, Feb. 18, and Feb. 19, found that among decided voters, about 44.1 per cent said they support the PCs, 30.7 per cent support the Liberals, 16.6 per cent support the NDP, and 6.6 per cent would vote for the Green Party.

Among decided and undecided voters, 40.1 per cent said they support the PCs, 27.9 per cent said they would vote Liberal, 15.1 per cent said they support the NDP, six per cent said they would vote for the Green Party, 1.9 per cent responded “other,” and 8.9 per cent said they were undecided.

“Ontario Progressive Conservatives lead with a 13-point advantage over the Liberals. PCs lead among all age groups and among men while women are a tight race between the two front running parties,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist with Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

There has been little movement in the top choice for premier since nightly tracking began at the beginning of this month.

About 41.3 per cent of respondents said they want Ford to lead the province, compared to 25.4 per cent who selected Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, 14.2 per cent who picked NDP Leader Marit Stiles, and 6.9 per cent who chose Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

The Liberals have pulled ahead in Toronto, where 39.7 per cent of respondents said they would support the Liberals, compared to 38.6 per cent for the PCs. About 16.8 per cent of Torontonians surveyed said they would vote NDP and 3.6 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party. The gap continues to widen in the Greater Toronto Area. About 50.8 per cent of GTA respondents said they would vote PC, compared to 27.7 per cent who said they support the Liberals, 13.6 per cent who support the NDP, and 2.3 per cent who said they would vote for the Green Party.

The random survey has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.