Why Doug Ford called an early Ontario election and everything else you need to know as the campaign begins

The leaders of Ontario's four main political parties are pictured in this composite image. (Left to right) PC Leader Doug Ford, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Leader Mike Schreiner.

A snap election officially kicks off in Ontario today. Although voters in the province were not scheduled to pick a new provincial government until June 2026, they will now be heading to the polls roughly a year and half early on Feb. 27.

If you’re wondering why Ontario is suddenly launching into an election, here’s what you need to know.

Polls

The news of a snap election might be catching some people by surprise, but it comes as no shock to many who have been watching provincial politics closely.

“If you have been following it all, you know that Ford and the (Progressive Conservatives) in Ontario have wanted to have an early election for some time,” John Shields, Professor Emeritus in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU) said.

For months, polling has put the PC party far ahead of their chief rivals, the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP. One recent poll indicated the PCs currently lead the Liberals by as much as 24 points. However another showed that the gap may have closed to within six points.

The Ottawa factor

There is a tendency in Canadian politics for voters to favour having opposite parties in power, provincially and federally.

With uncertainty around who will be in power in Ottawa more than a year from now, the PCs are able to capitalize on this tendency by running while the unpopular Liberals are still in power federally.

“There’s been some examination of it. There is certainly a pattern to that historically,” Shields said. “And this is often thought of as kind of a bit of a balancing act by the electorate.”

Still, Shields noted, that historical tendency doesn’t necessarily mean the trend will continue.

Tariff threats

Canada has faced looming tariff threats since Donald Trump‘s election in November. These tariffs would hit Ontario hard and could cost the province up to 500,000 jobs, the government has said.

Ford has said he needs a new mandate from the people in case he needs to spend billions of dollars to prop up Ontario‘s economy if tariffs are imposed.

The provincial government has argued that they need the new mandate because spending so much would force them to renege on a promise to balance the books, a promise they ran on in the last election, and because they say it would give them a stronger position in negotiations around tariffs.

“Now with the situation in the U.S., he (Ford) has kind of championed himself as kind of Captain Canada, if you will, in a bit of a power vacuum,” Shields said. “And he’s been very hard-edged about fighting the American threats of tariffs.

That positioning has been popular in Ontario and across the country, Shields noted.

“So now the election becomes a mandate for Ford. That’s how he’s casting it, right?” Shields said. “To be able to deal with this crisis, with Trump.”

While the other parties might want to focus on the PC party’s record, it will nonetheless be difficult for them to ignore the U.S. threat, Shields said.

“The Liberals and the NDP will point to all the other problems that the government has right now in the health care system and schools and the Green Belt. And these are all real issues,” he said. “But I mean, I think a lot of people are also very concerned about what tariffs could mean to their jobs and to the health of the economy. So I don’t think you can just ignore that.”

CTV Political Analyst Scott Reid sounded a similar note.

“If you’re the opposition, you don’t want to talk about the tariff threat because you know you’re playing on Doug Ford’s territory,” he told CP24.

He predicted there will be early pressure on Ford to justify the snap election as there is a struggle between the parties to define what the election is about.

“If in the first five, six days you see Doug Ford stumbling and struggling to answer that question, he can’t get off that topic, then maybe the opposition can get some momentum. If not, he’s probably going to sail to another majority win,” Reid predicted.

Cash and ads

Casual observers can be forgiven for thinking that an election has already been underway for months given the number of political ads they have likely seen online, on radio, and on TV.

The provincial government has spent tens of millions on advertising, much of it according to the auditor general, on talking about how well the economy is doing. According to the auditor’s report in October, the Ontario government spent $103.5 million on ads for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. That’s more than Ontario has ever spent before.

The auditor noted that over the past 10 years, ad spending by the government “follows a wave-like pattern that correlates with Ontario’s provincial elections.”

Those ads, Shields said, are a kind of “soft form of election advertising” which can blur the lines between party and government resources.

But even without those ads, the PCs have far more cash on hand than their rivals.

Online contribution records from Elections Ontario show the PC party has raised around $11 million since Jan. 1, 2024. That compares to $2.6 million for the Liberals, $2.54 million for the NDP and $1.2 million for the Green Party. Those amounts could actually be higher because parties are not required to report smaller donations under $200 and the records don’t account for donations to riding associations.

“They (the PCs) have got very full coffers for the election. So they’ve got lots of money and they’ve already been doing a lot of advertising for this,” Shields said, noting they have a “very well-oiled machine” when it comes to fundraising.

Who’s running in the Ontario election?

Doug Ford is leading the Progressive Conservative Party into an election for the third time. He previously won majorities in 2018 and 2022.

Marit Stiles is leading the Ontario NDP into an election for the first time since taking over as party leader in February 2023. This will also be Bonnie Crombie’s first election as leader of her party after winning the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party just over a year ago in December 2023.

Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner is the longest-serving leader among the main parties, having served as leader since 2009.