Chow and Bradford in tighter race than expected, with voters feeling Toronto ‘on wrong track:’ poll

New polling data released by Main Street Research suggests that the upcoming mayoral election in Toronto will be a tight race.

Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford could face off in a close contest in Toronto’s mayoral race this year, a new poll indicates.

According to the Mainstreet Research poll, 43.6 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for Chow if an election were held today, compared to 37.8 per cent who would vote for Bradford. Around 18.6 per cent said they would be voting for someone else.

But in a two-way race, 51.9 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Bradford, compared to 48.1 per cent who said they’d vote for Chow.

The poll indicates a significant improvement in Bradford’s chances compared to a few months ago when former mayor John Tory was still a possible contender. A Mainstreet poll in February had Bradford at just 17 per cent. Tory has since said he will not run in this year’s election.

“The mayoral election contest in Toronto is shaping up to be more interesting than expected between the two main contenders” Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi said in a press release. “While Olivia Chow leads by almost 6 and has a ceiling close to 49%, a near equal number of voters say they will definitely NOT vote for her.”

Residents feel city ‘on wrong track’

According to the survey, other factors complicate the race for Chow, including 62.2 per cent of Toronto residents feeling the city is on the wrong track, compared to just 23.2 per cent who feel it’s on the right track and 14.6 per cent who aren’t sure.

Some 45.7 per cent of respondents said they would definitely not vote for Chow, while 25.1 per cent said they would definitely not vote for Bradford.

“Bradford has a lower ceiling currently with just 45% saying they would definitely vote for him or consider it, but only a quarter of residents say they will definitely NOT vote for him. That differential may change in time but it should be concerning to the Mayor,” Maggi said.

When it comes to Chow’s approval rating, just 40.8 per cent of respondents approve or strongly approve of the job she is doing as mayor. That compares to 56 per cent who disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job she is doing.

In terms of the top issue voters are concerned about when thinking about the mayoral race, 27.3 per cent said transportation and congestion rank as the top issue. Affordability and the cost of living came second at 25.8 per cent, while crime and safety ranked third at 23.5 per cent. Around 11.5 per cent of respondents said something else was their top issue, while 6.8 per cent said jobs and economic growth, and 5.1 per cent said city services for seniors.

Including Bradford and Chow, there are currently 23 candidates registered to run for mayor.

The Mainstreet Research poll surveyed 1,157 Toronto residents aged 18 and older from June 12-18 online and by phone. The poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Voters not in favour of ticket reselling, island airport plans

The poll also asked voters what they thought of the city reselling World cup tickets to corporate sponsors at a profit. The city said it was taking the move to reduce taxpayer money being spent on the games.

But 49.4 per cent of respondents either disapproved or strongly disapproved of the practice, while 37.1 per cent approved or somewhat approved and 13.4 per cent said they weren’t sure.

When it comes to the Ford government’s airport expansion plans for Billy Bishop airport, 55.8 per cent of respondents said they either oppose or strongly oppose the plans, while 37.9 per cent said they somewhat or strongly support the plans.

Premier Doug Ford has claimed in the past that any poll would show 70 per cent or more of the population is behind his airport plan, which has faced opposition from Chow and community groups.

The federal government, which would need to sign off on any major changes to their airport, is currently running consultations on the future of the airport.