Are Doug Ford’s Tories poised for a breakthrough in Toronto? Polls suggest it’s a close race.

Signage from Elections Ontario, the non-partisan office of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario responsible for administering provincial elections, is seen on voting screens at a polling station in Toronto, Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (Giordano Ciampini/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The Progressive Conservative Party has seen its support in Toronto grow for the past two provincial elections.

The PCs won 11 seats in the city in 2018 on their way to their first majority, their best election result in Toronto in nearly a decade. Four years later, the Tories gained one more seat, winning 12 of the 25 Toronto ridings as they formed a second majority government. All of those seats are in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough.

So, could the Tories hold on to their seats and maybe even improve their support in the city, which was once a Liberal stronghold? According to Nanos Research’s nightly tracking, Doug Ford’s PCs and Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals are in a tight race in Toronto. A Nanos Research survey released on Tuesday showed that the Liberals currently have a slight edge with the support of 37.3 per cent of decided voters compared to 33.7 per cent for the Tories. The NDP are in third with the support of 25.2 per cent of decided voters in Toronto. The PCs lead in all other regions of the province.

READ MORE: 10 ridings to watch on election night

Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University, says the PC party is seeing its popularity outside urban centres finally tricking into some major cities, where other parties have traditionally held strongholds.

“I think it’s just the success of (Ford’s) message but also that perhaps the lack of enthusiasm generated by opposition leaders at present,” Lawlor said.

Part of the reason, she says, is that the PCs are more prepared for an election than the other parties.

Lawler says she would not be surprised if the PCs win more seats in Toronto on Thursday.

“I still think there is a strong progressive core within the City of Toronto and that we will see some of those stalwart ridings hold on. However, I do expect it’s entirely possible for a couple of those riding to move toward the governing party,” she said.

Political commentator Amanda Galbraith believes the number of PC seats in Toronto will ultimately depend on the NDP-Liberal vote.

“Apparently, right now, it looks like the NDP vote is collapsing, which actually could yield more seats for the Conservatives in a couple of swing ridings if they go their way,” she said.

She noted that an NDP collapse could also benefit the Liberals.

But, Galbraith said, “People have talked about the Liberal vote just isn’t as efficient as the NDP vote is. There’s a possibility, a slight one, that we have no official opposition, which would be wild.”

She believes that the issues the two parties speak to don’t resonate with many Toronto residents.

“Everyone’s talking about getting the snow cleared. They want encampments gone. Affordability is a real concern. They’re less concerned with social safety net, which I think is the conversation the NDP and kind of left-learning parties are trying to have,” Galbraith said.

In addition to affordability, people are worried about the impact of U.S. tariffs, which she says is an issue that the PCs do relatively well on.

“It’s certainly Doug Ford’s to lose,” Galbraith said.

Polling suggests that Ford is well positioned to earn his third straight majority government, with the Nanos Research survey released Tuesday suggesting the Tories enjoy the support of 45.4 per cent of decided voters.

Political analysts believe the election has come down to who will form the Official Opposition.

CTV News political commentator Scott Reid says the NDP is facing a real threat, as it could lose its official opposition status.

“The fact that (NDP Leader Marit Stiles) is having to campaign on home turf, literally in her home riding in downtown Toronto, tells you what some of the public polls have been showing, which is they’re struggling to punch through. They’re struggling to stay out of third place,” Reid said in an interview with CTV Toronto eight days before the election.

Some key Toronto ridings to watch

All of the 12 seats the PCs won in 2022 are in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough. They do not have an incumbent in three ridings this election.

In Don Valley North, Vincent Ke, who ran and won under the PC banner during the last two elections, is seeking re-election as an independent. He left the PC party in 2023 amid allegations that he was involved in China’s election interference during the 2019 federal election.

The riding of Eglinton-Lawrence is an open seat after Robin Martin, who turned it blue in 2018, decided to leave provincial politics. The Ontario Liberals are hoping they can take back the riding, which voted red for a long time. An NDP candidate for the riding pulled out of the election because she said it’s a two-party race and hoped her decision would prevent another PC win.

Meanwhile, the Liberals and the NDP are also looking to reclaim York South-Weston. The riding has been represented mainly by a Liberal or an NDP MPP before Michael Ford won in 2022. The PC leader’s nephew also did not run for re-election.