The next leader of the federal Liberal Party could become the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history, beating an unlucky record set 119 years ago.
When a new Liberal leader is declared on March 9, they will take over from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who will have held Canada’s top job for just over nine years and four months.
If a confidence vote is held on or after March 24, which is when parliament resumes, the next prime minister could face an election as early as May 5 – or they could even call one sooner. If the Liberals lose, yet another prime minister could be sworn-in by May 15.
If the next Liberal leader takes over from Trudeau 10 days after the leadership convention, they could hold Canada’s top job for as little as 58 days. That would set a new record for Canada’s shortest-serving prime minister, beating out Conservative Sir Charles Tupper, who lasted just 68 days way back in 1896.
Even if an election is held by the legislated date of Oct. 20, a Liberal loss would mean the next prime minister only serves for about six months, placing them just behind three short-term prime ministers: Tupper at 68 days, Liberal John Turner at 79 days and Progressive Conservative Kim Campbell at 132 days.
Who were Canada’s shortest-serving prime ministers?
Much like the next Liberal leader, Canada’s three shortest-serving prime ministers all have one thing in common: they were all selected by a governing party to replace an outgoing prime minister. All three were also defeated in their first federal election as leader.
Tupper was a father of Confederation and a Nova Scotia premier. Appointed prime minister after his predecessor Mackenzie Bowell resigned, Tupper served for just 68 days until losing the 1896 election to Liberal Sir Wilfrid Laurier.
After Pierre Elliott Trudeau retired from politics in 1984, John Turner won the Liberal leadership race and took over as prime minister. His term lasted only 79 days before he lost a general election to Progressive Conservative Brian Mulroney. Like Carney, Turner did not hold a seat in parliament when he ran to become party leader.
Canada’s first female prime minister, Kim Campbell became prime minister and Progressive Conservative leader after Mulroney stepped down in 1993. Her brief 132-day term ended after her party was decimated in a federal election.
Who are Canada’s longest serving prime ministers?
By the time Trudeau likely steps down in March, he will be Canada’s seventh-longest-serving prime minister, about five months behind his predecessor Stephen Harper, who governed for nearly nine years and nine months.
The longest-serving prime minister of all time was Liberal William Lyon Mackenzie King, who ruled for more than 21 years in three non-consecutive terms between 1921 and 1948. The number two spot is held by Canada’s first prime minister, Sir John. A MacDonald, at nearly 19 years. MacDonald had two non-consecutive terms between 1867 and 1891. Trudeau’s father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, comes in third at over 15 years. He also formed two non-consecutive governments between 1968 and 1984.
How did we calculate this?
After a new Liberal leader is declared on March 9, they will be sworn in as prime minister in the coming days or weeks. That could happen around March 19. Parliament is scheduled to resume on March 24, and if the Liberals lose a confidence vote on or shortly after that date, it will trigger an election.
Election campaigns must be between 37 and 51 days, and elections typically fall on a Monday – the earliest date that could happen would be May 5. Over the past three decades, new prime ministers were sworn in anywhere between 10 and 16 days after their election victories, which means Canada could have yet another prime minister as soon as May 15.
What else could happen?
The Liberal leadership candidates are former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland, former Liberal House leader Karina Gould and former MP Frank Baylis.
Political scientist Nelson Wiseman is a University of Toronto professor emeritus who specializes in Canadian government and politics. He says there are other scenarios that could see the next Liberal leader serve an even shorter or longer term. They could, for example, call an election before parliament is scheduled to resume on March 24; they could make a controversial request to the governor general to extend prorogation; or they could cut a deal with the NDP on an issue like electoral reform to prolong their government’s life.
“Maybe the public would get upset, you know that the Tories would yell blue murder,” Wiseman said.
