With the old threat of Quebec separatism rearing its head with the Parti Quebecois on the rise in the polls and its leader promising a referendum on Quebec sovereignty if he’s elected, thoughtful commentators have been fretting of late about the possibility of a third referendum.
I’ve got good news for them: it’s not going to happen.
That’s not to say that separatism is dead. It ain’t. What is worth noting, though, is that it’s still stuck in the 33% range where it’s been for decades.
Yes, the second referendum, the one in 1995, was quite a nail-biter thanks to the failure of Meech and the desire of even moderate Quebecers to show their displeasure.
But how many Quebecers are willing to actually chuck it in and give up their Canadian passports? Still about one-third and not growing.
What is growing is the new generation of open, savvy, self-assured and internationally attuned younger Quebecers. The ones I’ve been teaching in university since I left politics.
They love Quebec, cherish the French language and are part of a thriving, unique culture. But they aren’t about to become lemmings, jumping into the void, to please an older generation of grumpy die-hards.
They appreciate Canada’s place in the world. They also understand that on a planet racked by geopolitical and climate upheaval, the last thing they and their future families need is homegrown uncertainty.
We’ve got it good.
All of Canada, including Quebec, is a peaceful, prosperous democracy. We’re among the luckiest people on the planet.
We sometimes forget it, either when politicians say that Canada is broken or when we take our good fortune for granted.
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We’ve put that good fortune on the table in two referendums that were divisive and hurtful. Those of us who worked hard to save the country during those difficult times will work equally hard to make sure it never happens again.
I was there during both referendums. First as a lawyer in the Quebec Justice Department during the 1980 referendum. They’d waived the usual rules about civil servants not being allowed to get involved in active politics. I worked hard as a volunteer in Quebec City. It was my first real political experience and it was harrowing.
It was a mighty battle but thanks to passionate politicians like Claude Ryan on the provincial side and Pierre Trudeau, federally, the ‘no’ side won a resounding victory.
The 1995 referendum was a different story. I was a member of the Quebec National Assembly during that one. It was brutal.
I travelled constantly, with a particular role north of Montreal, both in the area of my home riding in Laval and in the Laurentians.
What was remarkable was the total absence of any coherent strategy from the feds under Jean Chrétien. I admire Chrétien a great deal. But in that crucial period in our history, he seemed worried and frozen, unable to act convincingly, and it almost cost us the country.
The provincial Liberals, that I was part of, did their best. Leader Daniel Johnson was a tireless and engaged campaigner. But the only federal politician to a play notable role was Jean Charest, who would famously pull out his Canadian passport to remind folks what was at stake. The ‘no’ side eked out a narrow win.
That squeaker of a victory was also scary. How had we come so close? A Band-Aid solution, the so-called Clarity Act, was a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses had bolted, but it helped Chrétien and the Liberals burnish their federalist credentials in the rest of Canada, and the country moved on.
What, if anything, is current federal leadership doing to shore up support from younger Quebecers? Not much.
Justin Trudeau and Quebec separatism
There’s a widely held belief that the federal Liberals have a hammerlock on the issue of Canadian unity. During my time in politics, I learned that many Canadians see Justin Trudeau as just the latest Liberal leader to be a federalist bulwark against separatism.
But what’s his track record?
I don’t know of any effort that he made during the 1995 referendum to help keep the country together. Fair enough, he was just a kid during the first, 1980, referendum.
But in 1995 -- when he would have been 24 years old -- his undoubted communications skills would have contributed positively in what was a very close outcome. I’ve asked friends and colleagues who fought in that battle for Canada and none has any recollection of Trudeau showing up to help with anything.
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He talks a good game today, but when the chips were down and the future of Canada was on the table, he was AWOL.
One of Justin Trudeau’s hallmarks is talking about the Charter of Rights that his father brought in. But when Quebec used the notwithstanding clause to remove Constitutional guarantees for the English-speaking community of Quebec to equality before the courts, he blinked.
Not only did he fail to act, he put Quebec’s Bill 96 (and its notwithstanding clause) into the federal Official Languages Act, incorporating by reference the very law that removed those rights. Premier Francois Legault boasts about it constantly.
That’s why it was so amusing to see Jean Chrétien’s former chief of staff Eddie Goldenberg find a new assignment for Trudeau, as Captain Canada (once he could be persuaded to finally step down as prime minister, that is).
It’s worth quoting Mr. Goldenberg:
“As people reflect on his accomplishments, he would have a standing in public opinion that would make him a formidable force in explaining to Quebecers the benefits of being part of Canada. An undefeated Justin Trudeau could very well be the difference between saving Canada and seeing the breakup of it. This is a most powerful reason for Mr. Trudeau to retire now before it is too late.”
Sorry, but those of us who actually fought in the battles for Canadian unity have a bit of trouble following that.
Subjacent to much of the recent talk about Canadian unity is the sense that there is political opportunity in it. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, the usurper, couldn’t possibly know as much about keeping the country together as the party of the Trudeaus.
It could be a sleeper issue in the next campaign.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017
