A new report from the Conference Board of Canada says, while Trump’s tariffs will hurt communities across Canada, southwestern Ontario will be one of the hardest hit.
The study looked at the potential impact on 24 Census Metropolitan Areas.
Guelph came out on top, with a projected 2.3 per cent decrease in real GDP.
Windsor was the runner-up with an estimated 2.2 per cent drop, and the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo area ranked third with a projected 1.9 per cent decrease in real GDP.
Hamilton and London finished out the top five.
The report also went into why these communities are most at risk.
“Guelph is highly exposed to any tariffs by the United States, given the importance of the manufacturing and agriculture sectors to the region’s economy,” it explained, adding that its reliance on a trade-centered economy makes it more exposed economic harm.
“In 2024, manufacturing’s share of employment was nearly 19 per cent, second only to Windsor in the cities covered in our outlook. More than half of the manufacturing jobs were in food, beverage and tobacco products and in transportation equipment.”
“We have about 16,000 direct jobs that would be impacted in our community. For every direct job, [there are] about seven to nine indirect jobs that are attached to those,” Guelph Mayor Cam Guthrie said.
Despite the uncertainty swirling around the American tariffs, Guthrie remains optimistic.
“The business community is concerned, and rightly concerned, but I’ve been very surprised and very heartened to hear a lot of businesses I’ve spoken to are really pulling together,” he said.
It was a similar story for the Region of Waterloo.
“A large manufacturing sector, normally a strength, places Kitchener–Waterloo–Cambridge among Canada’s most tariff-exposed areas,” the report said. “The region’s significant footprint in the high-profile auto sector is a particular worry. Not all local manufacturing output is exported, though, with big firms like BWXT Canada producing for the domestic market.”
The region’s innovative reputation, however, could help it weather the economic storm.
“The area has been economically resilient and technologically innovative over the past century, positive attributes in times like these.”
The rankings were based on a number of assumptions, including:
- U.S. tariffs of 25 per cent on all non-energy exports, with 10 per cent on all energy exports remaining in place for one quarter
- That the U.S. does not escalate its trade war as a result of Canada’s response
- The tariffs continue for three months, assumed to be the entirety of the second quarter
- No response from the Bank of Canada to the tariffs
