CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals’ lead is back up to six points over the Conservatives on Day 20 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 10 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives who have stayed at 38 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party remains in single digits at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
Regional support
Regionally, chief data scientist Nik Nanos calls it an east versus west “showdown” with the Liberals leading in Eastern Canada, the Conservatives leading in the Prairies and British Columbia being a “toss-up.”
The Conservatives saw gains earlier this week in seat-rich Ontario where they reached 41 per cent, but over the past three days they’re back down to 37 per cent -- versus the Liberals who have gone up a few points and sit at 51 per cent.
The Liberals continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 53 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 39 per cent for the Liberals, and in B.C., where it’s a very tight race with the parties statistically tied and the Conservatives up by less than a percentage point.
The Liberals are leading in Quebec and are up a few points at 43 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 24. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place and have gone down a few points, at 25 per cent.
The Liberals continue to lead in the Atlantic region, meanwhile, with 51 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 43 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at six per cent.
“The East-West division speaks to the political tensions within the federation,” said Nanos, the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “Surely for voters in the Prairies, where the Conservatives enjoy a 25-point lead, it must be difficult to fathom how there are people supporting the Liberals. Conversely in the East, voters likely underestimate the intensity of pro-Conservative views among Westerners.”
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney still has a comfortable lead, with 47 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who has risen a few points over the past week and now sits at 34 per cent.
Nanos pointed out on Thursday that Carney’s advantage on the preferred PM tracking was more than 20 percentage points a week ago and has incrementally diminished.
By gender
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be far more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-one per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eleven per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is down a few points at 36 per cent, compared with 47 per cent for the Conservatives (unchanged). Only six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 8 to 10, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
