Vote splitting: it’s the bane of a political party’s existence when it has a rival in its ideological sphere.
On the federal level in Canada, that’s the case nowadays for the centre-leftish Liberals and the left-wing NDP in the same way a generation ago the centre-right Progressive Conservatives and the right-wing Reform Party duked it out nationally for votes in any given riding, particularly in the west.
But while some in the NDP admit they have little chance of forming government, the current ruling Liberals do, and with the polls projecting a close race between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, every vote and every seat counts.
One such riding faced with a heated race comes smack in a city that’s unafraid to thumb its balloting nose at its conservative-backing neighbours: Edmonton Centre.
Feo Snagovsky, an assistant professor in the department of political science at the University of Alberta, says Edmonton Centre “has definitely shaped up” to be competitive.
“It is an interesting riding because it’s flip-flopped between the various parties over time, and you had parties potentially seeing it as a pickup – for the Liberals as a hold, and the Conservatives and the NDP as a pickup,” Snagovsky told CTV News Edmonton.
If you have two strong progressive parties in the Liberals and the NDP, the Conservatives could certainly sneak down the middle
— Feo Snagovsky, political scientist
Edmonton Centre has been an intense battleground between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last 20 years, with recent Liberal Randy Boissonnault, its most-recent incumbent, and Conservative James Cumming beating each other by relatively close margins in two of the last three federal elections.
It was the same story in the 2004 and 2006 votes, when heavyweight Liberal cabinet minister Anne McLellan and Conservative Laurie Hawn took turns winning the riding in close races.
With both Boissonnault and Copping no longer on the scene, a new crop of hopefuls are on the campaign trail hoping to capture Edmonton Centre.
And today, there’s a new wrinkle in Trisha Estabrooks, the NDP’s candidate in the riding.
A former chair and trustee of the Edmonton Public School Board and an ex-local journalist, Estabrooks has name recognition and familiarity on her side compared to the others in the race, particularly Liberal candidate Eleanor Olszewski and Conservative hopeful Sayid Ahmed.
Estabrooks has been the confirmed NDP candidate in the riding since November 2023 and says she’s been constantly knocking on doors.
That all can play an important role on election day in a tight race, Snagovsky said.
“We know from political-science evidence that about five- to 10 per cent of the vote a local candidate gets is actually about them and not about the party brand or the party leader, so in a tight race, that can definitely make a difference,” he said.
The NDP has never won in Edmonton Centre.
Olszewski, a lawyer who has run unsuccessfully for the Liberals twice before in Edmonton-Strathcona, was parachuted into the riding after Boissonnault dropped out just before campaigns started late last month once Carney called the election.
It’s government worker Ahmed’s first time running for office.
Both Estabrooks and Olszewski identify similar issues as being key favors for voters in the upcoming April 28 vote, among them the tariff and sovereignty threats posed by a United States led by Donald Trump, affordability, housing and health care.
Where they differ is Estabrooks promises to be part of an opposition by a party that – in supporting Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government – pushed for and secured a national dental program, child-care coverage and the Pharmacare Act that helps people access low-cost or free medication, while Olszewski encourages voting for her to help ensure the Carney Liberals secure power.
“I think people in this riding will realize when it actually comes time to cast the ballot that it’s a leadership decision, that the NDP really aren’t in the race,” Olszewski told CTV News Edmonton.
“It’s a choice between the Liberals and the Conservatives, and that it’s Mark Carney who, as I say, has the experience and the gravitas to lead this country out through this economic crisis.”
Estabrooks says she is being told by voters they want a representative “who’s going to fight for them.”
“I’m a realist. I know the NDP is not going to form government. What I will say is that we’ve proven ourselves to be a fierce opposition. We’ve shown in the last minority Parliament that we can work with the Liberals and get things done for Canadians,” Estabrooks told CTV News Edmonton.
“People tell me this all the time at the door: They want representation, someone who serves with passion, someone who serves with purpose, someone who they know will be that strong voice for them in Ottawa.”
Conservative Ahmed declined to speak to CTV News Edmonton about his campaign. He has also refused to participate in a riding candidates forum this Wednesday.
Given the strong showings previous party candidates have shown in Edmonton Centre, Ahmed has a realistic shot at winning the race, particularly if Estabrooks and Olszewski are neck-and-neck in the polls April 28.
Because vote-splitting “is definitely real,” Snagovsky said.
“It’s a mathematical reality. In a single member plurality electoral system, the candidate with the most votes wins even if that’s not the candidate that has a majority of the vote,” he said.
“If you have two strong progressive parties in the Liberals and the NDP, the Conservatives could certainly sneak down the middle, and both (the Liberal and NDP)candidates could credibly claim to the other’s voters that they should not vote for the other because of that Conservative vote split.
“In this particular race, it could really go either way.”
With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Jeremy Thompson
