Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist for Nanos Research, speaks with Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins about the upcoming federal election.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Michael Higgins: At the end of the of December, you had the Conservatives up 26 points over the Liberals. Now, in week one of the campaign, Nanos ballot tracking has that lead less than three points. What’s making this an actual two horse race?
Nik Nanos: What seemed like a Justin Trudeau Liberal car crash at the end of 2024 has now become much more competitive and it’s a combination of things. First of all, Justin Trudeau stepping down, he was a real lightning rod for a lot of Canadians who were tired of the Liberals and tired of Justin Trudeau.
Donald Trump, and tariffs and the threats to the Canadian economy, have basically changed the ballot question from ‘Do you like the Liberals? Are you happy with what’s happened in the last 10 years?’ To ‘What are the choices and different paths forward for Canada and the Canadian economy?’
So in that world, the Liberals become a lot more competitive and what we’re seeing right now is basically the Conservatives still have about a three percentage point advantage, but basically within the margin of error.
MH: When you convert these latest numbers into seat projections, what then comes of the bigger picture?
NN: The good news for the Conservatives is that right now, they would win more seats, at least in the Nanos seat projections. A lot of this has to do with not just how well they’re doing in the prairie provinces, but how well they’re doing in the province of Ontario.
If we were to have an election today, there’s still about 80 seats that are up for grabs, and it’s hard to tell with the Conservatives, how big their victory would be, but they would today at least win more seats than the Liberals.
MH: It’s likely safe to say the Conservatives have rural Alberta locked tight but what’s your read on potential battleground zones in Edmonton, Calgary? Maybe even some of the mid-sized cities like Red Deer or Lethbridge?
NN: What we’ve seen, at least especially in the last six to eight weeks, is that what was looking like a sweep across the prairies for the Conservatives, now the Liberals, and to a lesser extent, the New Democrats, are a little more competitive in Edmonton and in a number of seats in Calgary.
Once you step out of the larger urban centres, it’s realistically a blue sweep right across the board. British Columbia and Vancouver will also be really interesting because of the three way splits. The seats could either all go blue or they could all go red.
Maybe the key takeaway here is the one party that’s getting squeezed, the New Democrats, they’re not really doing well in terms of their popular support, and they’re getting squeezed in terms of strategic voting.
MH: Alberta’s premier drawing considerable attention for comments made during a Breitbart interview earlier this month on asking the U.S. administration to put the tariffs on pause through the election, suggesting Pierre Poilievre is in sync with Donald Trump. How likely is that to be reflected in the polls moving forward?
NN: I think it’s too early to tell who will have the advantage when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. Why don’t we just call Donald Trump the wild card in this election? Where he will be seeing something, and then there’ll be an expectation that both Poilievre and Carney will on the spot react to what he may or may not have said, or what he’s asserted, or whether he’s doing tariffs or not doing tariffs.
It’s going to be a pressure cooker for both Poilievre and Carney right now, just because of the uncertainty and disruption that Donald Trump brings to the race, but maybe that’s good. It’s good for politicians to fight and to compete and to work hard in order to win elections.
Right now, when we’re looking at both Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney, they’re in a fight for their political lives, and it’s actually quite close today. It will be interesting to see how they perform over the next couple of weeks.
MH: There’s still plenty of policy and promises addressing affordability issues in this first week of the campaign, cost of living must still be registering on the radar voters?
NN: Yeah, absolutely. When we ask Canadians their top national issue of concern, Trump and the U.S. are at the very top of the list, followed by jobs and the economy, health care, inflation and housing.
The way I look at it is Trump is the lightning rod, and then all of these issues, job security, what might be the cost to purchase a car, what might be the cost of energy, what might happen if the U.S. puts tariffs on Canadian goods, all those things fold under Donald Trump right now.
So just think of Trump as the lightning rod, and then all these other fiscal and economic issues kind of connecting to him.
MH: As rapid an ascent as the Liberals have experienced heading into the election, what would it take to trigger an equally rapid descent?
NN: A mess up by Mark Carney. The thing is, when the numbers are so volatile, and move this quickly, they could always move back in a different direction.
I think all bets are off in terms of what’s happening right now and just because the Liberals had a few good weeks, it doesn’t mean now that we’re in an election where there’s equal coverage between Poilievre and Carney, that that trend will continue.
MH: I know it’s only the first week of the campaign, but safe to say this will be an election for the history books? Regardless of which way it goes?
NN: I think it’s going to be a lot like 1988, where Canadians come out and vote and they know that their vote counts, and they know that whoever they vote for will be leading the country in a particular direction.
It’ll be interesting to see how many Canadians come out and vote and who they might support in terms of giving them a tip of the hat to lead Canada.
