An El Nino-less summer is coming. Here's what that could mean for Canada

A windsurfer cuts through the waves along Lake Ontario overlooking the City of Toronto skyline on a warm winter day in Mississauga, Ont., Friday, Feb. 9, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.

The transition from El Nino to La Nina, a natural climate pattern which shifts warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to more neutral levels, might have meant a cooler summer in generations past, but human-driven climate change is causing temperatures to continue an upward trend, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center.

Current temperature outlooks for North America are bringing the heat. Much of Canada is predicted to encounter warmer than normal temperatures this summer, according to forecasters including those with Environment Canada

Chillier spells may make Eastern and especially Atlantic Canada the exception, moderating the above-average conditions predominating for most Canadians elsewhere, the Weather Network said in its May lookahead.

Hossein Bonakdari, associate professor of civil engineering at University of Ottawa, says 2023's El Nino has been “one of the strongest on record, with significant global impacts.”

"The warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface waters has led to changes in global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in South America, droughts in Southeast Asia, and warmer temperatures in North America," he said in a December release.

Bonakdari explained that El Nino primarily impacts Western Canada, with its effects lessening as the jet stream “moves eastward.”

Despite La Nina typically ushering in cooler and wetter conditions, rises in global temperatures can contribute to unpredictable weather patterns.

Following a mild winter with low snow levels, forecasts also suggest dryer and hotter conditions could lead to an increased risk of wildfires, prompting public policy experts to call for wildfire prevention efforts following the summer of 2023, which saw a record-breaking wildfire season.

According to the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service, the average global temperature for 2024 is expected to be between 1.34 C and 1.58 C above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

This is the 11th consecutive year that temperatures will reach at least one degree above pre-industrial levels, the Met Office reports.