Tariffs on Canadian crude to drive up pump prices in U.S., analyst says

A person pumps gas into their vehicle at a gas station in Mississauga, Ont., Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

CALGARY — Motorists in some U.S. regions can expect to take a hit at the pump thanks to tariffs on Canadian oil imports, a gas price analyst says, as President Donald Trump has pressed ahead with a 10 per cent levy on energy.

The northeastern United States can expect to see the quickest and biggest pump price increases, as much of that region’s fuel comes directly from the Irving Oil refinery in Saint John, N.B., GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan wrote in a blog post Tuesday.

“By mid-March 2025, the Northeast could expect fuel prices — including gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products — to be 20-40 cents (US) per gallon higher,” he wrote.

“For a typical 15-gallon fill-up, that’s an additional US$3-US$6 every time you visit the pump.”

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De Haan added that it’s not so simple for U.S. refineries to simply switch to processing domestic crude. Many of those facilities and the pipelines that connect to them have been configured to handle heavy Canadian crude, not the lighter product produced in Texas.

“It’s like asking someone with a diesel truck to suddenly fill up with regular gasoline,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said her province sits on one of the biggest petroleum reserves in the world, and before the tariffs came in, she would have loved to double the amount sold to the United States.

“Now we’re going to have to look at ‘Can we sell more off the West Coast, the East Coast and up north,’ because if the Americans don’t want our products, the rest of the world does,” she said in an interview on CNBC on Tuesday.

“America’s been in a very good position by being the first and primary customer and purchaser of a discounted oil, and we’re going to have to look for new markets, too, if this persists.”

The Explorers and Producers Association of Canada, which represents conventional oil and gas producers, says the move shows Canada can no longer afford to proceed with major energy infrastructure projects at a “slow and costly rate.”

“This crisis demonstrates the clear and urgent need to take immediate action to build natural resource infrastructure and diversify our economy to other markets beyond the United States, growing our economic power and supporting Canadian values,” the group said Tuesday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 4, 2025.

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press