Where is everybody? Economist speculates on why World Cup host city hotels aren’t seeing forecast boom

Economist Kiefer Van Mulligen discusses why Canada has not seen a bigger tourism boost during the FIFA World Cup.

Canada prepared for a FIFA World Cup tourism boom, with months of conversations around traffic increases and accommodation rates, but did that surge actually happen?

Some hotels in Vancouver and Toronto have reported bookings below expectations, according to an expert in economic forecasting who was asked whether the Canadian host cities are seeing fewer visitors than expected.

Kiefer Van Mulligen, a lead economist with Signal49 Research, said it seems that way, based on the surprise felt by hoteliers that occupancy rates are flat or even below expectations.

So where is everyone?

The reduction in tourism might not be that fewer people are attending the games than expected, but that tourists not interested in the World Cup have decided to go somewhere else or cancel plans.

“I think maybe one thing that wasn’t considered ahead of time is the displacement of this regular, baseline tourism activity,” Van Mulligen said in an interview with CTV Your Morning Monday.

An organization representing Toronto-area hotels said 72 per cent of rooms were occupied in the third week of June, a significant dip from 86 per cent occupancy during the same week last year.

Data from earlier this month looking at pre-booked occupancy suggested Vancouver hotel rooms were 64.5 per cent booked for the same period in June of last year, and just 47.9 per cent booked going into June 2026.

Hotel analytics firm CoStar noted bookings in Mexican and American host cities were also down heading into June.

Speaking about Toronto and Vancouver, Van Mulligen said one factor is that business tourism is likely down, as conventions and conferences are either postponed or cancelled entirely. Similarly, some annual events, like Vancouver’s Dragon Boat Festival, have been cancelled because of the conflicting timing.

“Already you’re seeing a decrease in this baseline, so you’d have to go above that to see a material increase in the number of people coming in.”

Similarly, conversations around traffic and the anticipation of higher costs of hotels might have deterred travellers from visiting Vancouver and Toronto in June, especially in the current financial climate.

“We’re in a technical recession, consumers are concerned about the labour market – AI displacement – and there’s this ongoing tariff conflict with the United States, so that has people worried about their future financial prospects,” Van Mulligen said.

Consumer confidence was already low, he said. Add to that soaring gas prices ahead of the start of the games as a result of Mideast conflicts.

“So heading into these games, you have people paying more for essentials, their normal, everyday goods. And you’re asking them to pay for accommodations, for the flights, for ticket prices. That’s a lot to ask of the Canadian consumer right now, so maybe that had an impact as well,” Van Mulligen said.

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As for whether the cost of the games is worth it for Canada, it’s still too soon to say.

“Economics is all about trade-offs,” he said. Not everyone will agree with the World Cup being a priority, but some may feel the celebration was worth it, even if the costs end up exceeding the revenue.