Canadians less likely to travel to U.S. with Trump in office: poll

A new study says many Canadians are planning to travel to the United States less in the wake of Donald Trump’s potential tariffs.

With a lot of uncertainty surrounding Inauguration Day and what president-elect Donald Trump‘s impact on Canadians will be, one thing is for sure: a new poll suggests Canadians — specifically Atlantic Canadians — will travel stateside less.

“A big number of people actually, three-in-10, told us they’re planning to travel (to the U.S.) less in the coming year,” says Margaret Chapman, chief operating officer of Narrative Research.

Trump has an even greater impact on the minds of Atlantic Canadians, with nearly 40 per cent expecting to travel stateside less. The online survey by Narrative Research compiled opinions from more than 1,200 people between Dec. 10 and 12, 2024. There was no question about why people’s habits would change.

Canadians over the age of 55 are less likely to travel than the younger demographic, and men are more likely to continue travelling as opposed to women.

“I think it really starts to show how one change in power could actually really influence people’s behaviour,” Chapman says.

Overall, the poll projects a 21 per cent net loss in travel south of the border. But that’s certainly not the case for all.

“If I need to go down to the states, I’m going to go,” says Lucas Martinez, who travels to the U.S. about twice a year from B.C. “I don’t think the president’s really going to change that, it doesn’t really matter to me who the president is. We live in Canada.”

For some, while there would be no bearing on travelling, the incoming president would influence the decision to live stateside.

“I am really interested in women’s rights and women’s health,” says Molly Doyle. “There’s a lot of things that will most likely be changing, [so for] that aspect of things, [I] wouldn’t want to be living there.”

Others will stay away from the U.S. altogether.

“It definitely doesn’t make me really want to visit the states,” says Clara Reynolds-White. “I don’t agree with [Trump’s] political beliefs or his personal beliefs.”

“It definitely makes me think twice about visiting the states on vacation, and depending on its impact on the economy,” says Doug Wallace, “it may affect business-related travel as well.”

Polarization, other factors

“I don’t feel it would have an impact on how often I travel,” says Val Sjolin, who travels six-to-eight times per year because she owns property in America.

But she’s worried border processing could take longer with tightened measures promised.

That, coupled with the Canadian dollar, are other key factors in possible decisions, says Lorn Sheehan, a professor of strategy at Dalhousie University.

He says the poll numbers aren’t entirely surprising.

“When our Canadian dollar weakens, as we have seen it weaken over the last 12 months, that becomes more expensive for Canadians to travel and spend in the U.S.,” Sheehan says.

Then, of course, there’s the political climate.

“This is probably the most polarizing that I think I’ve seen in terms of American presidents coming to power,” he says.

While some are excited about the Trump term, others are very concerned about it. But the national relationship needs to be prioritized, he says.

“It’s an extremely important trade relationship that we have with the U.S.,” Sheehan says. “It’s our biggest trade partner, and we cannot afford to have that relationship go sideways.”