Expert says Trump wants a 'win' as it remains unclear whether Canada thwarted tariffs

President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2025. (Pool via AP)

WASHINGTON — Canadians are feeling a foreboding sense of déjà vu as the country waits to see whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of economy-wide tariffs ultimately materialize on Tuesday, tipping North America into a trade war.

“Canada has to prepare for a world where it can’t rely on the United States for stability in its trading relationships or in its security relationships,” said Matthew Lebo, a specialist in U.S. politics at Western University in London, Ont.

Despite a month-long diplomatic push in Washington and boosted border enforcement, Canadians remain uncertain whether Trump will slap America’s closest neighbours with devastating duties.

It’s tantamount to the anxiety of multiple days in early February after Trump signed an executive order to implement 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports, with a lower 10 per cent levy on energy. Following two phone calls between Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, late-day news of a month-long pause emerged.

Trump declared victory — as Canada agreed to introduce new security measures at the border — and delivered a warning that the tariff threat was not over.

Canada named a new “fentanyl czar,” listed Mexican cartels as terrorist groups and launched a Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. More helicopters and drones were launched and additional officers patrolled the border.

Canada law enforcement agencies across the country have been loudly proclaiming drug busts and fentanyl seizures.

Public Safety Minister David McGuinty said last week he believed that “any test that was put on this country, on Canada, in terms of showing progress and meeting standards for the border — I believe those have been met.”

McGuinty had meetings with U.S. Border Czar Tom Homan and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in Washington to show Canada’s progress. Trump’s executive order instructed Noem to notify him if Canada had done enough to thwart the tariffs.

McGuinty described the meetings as productive but could not say whether Canadian efforts met the threshold to appease the president’s concerns.

Trump Thursday declared that the tariffs were still coming.

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” Trump posted on social media.

If the levies are implemented, Trudeau has said Ottawa will reinstate its previously announced plan for retaliatory tariffs set to begin with an initial 25 per cent levy on $30 billion in U.S. goods, with duties on another $125 billion worth of goods three weeks later.

Trump’s statements on fentanyl conflict with U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data, which shows the number of people and drugs crossing illegally into the United States from Canada is minuscule compared to the volume coming across the southern border. It reports just 13.6 grams of fentanyl seized by northern Border Patrol staff in January.

The president and his team spent Saturday sharing posts declaring the Trump administration’s achievements at the border. Trump posted that in February there were the “LOWEST number of illegal immigrants trying to enter our Country in History.” There was no mention of Canadian efforts at the northern border.

While the president initially tied the tariffs to the flow of deadly fentanyl, he said the pause would allow time to reach a “final economic deal.” Lebo said Trump is looking for “a win.”

“Where these things usually end is with Trump making some kind of announcement that he won, that he got what he wanted,” Lebo said. “He puts out big threats or big plans of what he’s going to do, they turn out to be not feasible and, in the end, he declares victory and moves on.”

Canadian officials have made repeated trips to Washington in recent weeks and said they received positive feedback about Canada’s actions on the border from Republican lawmakers and members of Trump’s team. But it remains unclear what Trump ultimately wants in exchange for dropping his tariff threat for good.

“That’s the ironic thing, no one down here knows what he wants,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said at the National Governors Association winter meeting in Washington last month.

Trump’s complaints directed at Canada range from trade deficits to defence spending. He repeatedly claimed he wanted to make Canada a U.S. state.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV Friday that Mexico has proposed matching Washington’s tariffs on China.

“I think it would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also, so in a way we could have ‘Fortress North America’ from the flood of Chinese imports,” he said, leaving the door open about areas of negotiation.

Many Canadian officials have said that Trump’s ongoing tariff threats are tied to a mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. The continental trade pact was negotiated under the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“It’s quite possible (Trump) doesn’t know what he wants either,” Lebo said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 2, 2025.

Kelly Geraldine Malone, The Canadian Press