Global oil output to return to pre-Iran war level by year’s end, U.S. EIA says

A group of people stands in shallow water as a cargo ship appears anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

NEW YORK - Global oil output and trade flows should rebound fully by the end of this year from the disruptions caused by the Iran war, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices will average around US$74 a barrel in the spot market during the third quarter of this year, down from an average of $85 in June, the EIA said. The agency had last month forecast Brent prices would average over $101 a barrel in the third quarter.

The months-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the war has shut in millions of barrels of daily oil production from across the Middle East, forcing refiners from Europe to Asia to reduce fuel output.

Vessel movement through the waterway has risen in recent days following a preliminary deal between the U.S. and Iran. Although passage through Hormuz is not yet totally safe, the EIA has raised its annual oil production expectations while lowering its oil and motor fuel price forecasts.

The EIA said it expects most of the oil output previously shut in across the Middle East to return online by the first quarter of 2027. That will lift global supply and reduce withdrawals from stockpiles, returning oil markets to a state of oversupply that will weigh on prices, the agency said.

“We expect ongoing oil inventory accumulation over the next year will continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices,” the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report for July.

The agency now expects oil prices to average about $65 per barrel through next year, down from its prior forecast of over $79 in 2027.

Lower crude oil prices will contribute to a drop in U.S. retail gasoline prices, the EIA said. The agency now expects U.S. motor fuel prices will average about $3.80 a gallon in the third quarter, down from $4.21 a gallon in the second quarter.

Knock-on effects of the Iran war had pushed U.S. motor fuel prices to multi-year highs, posing a major political worry for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of November’s midterms.

Reporting by Shariq Khan and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by David Gregorio and Deepa Babington