‘A lot of promise’: Winnipeg’s new economic outlook seemingly positive, with a few caveats

The Winnipeg skyline is pictured on Feb. 1, 2023. (Jamie Dowsett/CTV News Winnipeg)

The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting a promising economic future for Winnipeg with a few caveats.

Its latest outlook finds the city’s GDP grew by an estimated one per cent in 2024. Broad improvements are expected in economic conditions that could generate stronger than average annual growth – to the tune of 2.4 per cent between 2025 and 2029.

Conference Board of Canada economist Walter Bolduc told CTV News Winnipeg the provincial government has helped foster the city’s growth with its emphasis on health care and education. He also flagged ongoing developments in the city, like the new Portage Place project which will see the troubled downtown mall transformed into a hub of health care services, recreation, housing and retail.

“Overall, it looks very promising. A lot of industries look to be improving, and that is great for the city,” Bolduc said.

Other key takeaways – Winnipeg’s labour force expanded in 2024 by 3.3 per cent, although growth is expected to ease to 1.7 per cent this year.

Total housing starts are also expected to improve to 5,600 this year, up from 5,000 in 2024.

Multiple units will make up the majority, accounting for 4,000 units.

Still, Winnipeg’s economic outlook isn’t entirely rosy.

Announced job cuts at Cargill and Boeing, for example, created a downside risk factor, Bolduc said.

“There is a large amount of employment happening from those two companies in Winnipeg, so there’s a risk there to the employment growth that we see for those industries.”

He also flagged China’s anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports could have an impact on the agricultural sector, as well as potential tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump in the United States.

“It’s a wait and see sort of approach with that one.”

Meanwhile, the outlook found Winnipeg’s unemployment rate reached 5.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2024 – the highest level since 2021. Still, it moved down to 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.

The jobless rate is expected to fall to five per cent in 2025.

The outlook also highlights issues with newcomer retention over the last several decades. That trend is unlikely to change over the next few years, the outlook forecasts, as many choose to relocate to cities with larger markets and more perceived economic opportunities, the report said.

“All these different things kind of come into play. But overall, to keep up your analogy, if it’s a stock, I think it’s promising.”

- With files from CTV’s Jon Hendricks