Doug Ford leads in every region except Toronto, which is a toss up: Nanos survey

Nik Nanos from Nanos Research discusses results of the poll showing 46 per cent support for the Progressive Conservatives.

With less than three weeks to go before Ontario voters head to the polls, the Progressive Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals, which have found themselves “firmly in second place,” according to a new survey released by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research on Friday.

According to the survey, which was commissioned by CTV News, the PCs have 45.9 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 30.1 per cent for the Ontario Liberals. The NDP, the survey found, has about 15.7 per cent support among decided Ontario voters while the Green Party has about 6.5 per cent support.

“PC Leader Doug Ford asked for a stronger mandate to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump and he opens up the campaign with ballot support higher than his majority victory in 2022,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

“The Liberals currently are firmly in second place in the CTV News/Nanos tracking. Ford leads in every region except the City of Toronto which is a toss up between the blue and red teams.”

In the City of Toronto, the PCs and Liberals are in a dead heat at about 36 per cent support for each party, according to the survey. About 21.8 per cent of Toronto respondents said they would vote for the New Democrats.

Across the GTA, the survey suggests that Ford’s PCs have a much stronger lead at 48.9 per cent support, compared to 34.7 per cent support for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals. Only about 12.1 per cent of GTA respondents said they would vote NDP.

Ford top choice for premier

The survey also found that Ford is the preferred choice for premier. About 39 per cent of those surveyed said Ford was their top choice to lead the province, followed by Crombie at 25.5 per cent, and NDP Leader Marit Stiles at 16.4 per cent.

Nanos noted that Ford has a “major advantage” among male voters, while the Liberals are “competitive among women.”

Among male respondents, 53.7 per cent said they would vote for the PCs, while about 24.2 per cent said they would vote Liberal and 14.4 per cent said they supported the NDP. Among female respondents, about 38.6 per cent said they would vote for the PCs compared to 35.9 per cent who expressed support for the Liberals. About 17.1 per cent of female respondents said they would vote for the NDP.

Support for the PCs is highest among those aged 35 to 54, while support for the Liberals is highest among respondents aged 55 and older.

The random survey, which included 900 Ontarians interviewed between Feb. 4 and Feb. 6, is considered accurate plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.