PCs hold a ‘strong advantage’ in 4 out of 5 Ontario regions but Toronto still a toss up: survey

Nik Nanos of Nanos Research with the latest polling numbers on the Ontario election.

With less than a week until Ontarians can begin voting in advance polls and two weeks until the Feb. 27 election date, a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research shows the Progressive Conservatives maintaining a significant lead province-wide.

The survey of 937 adult Ontarians found that the Tories have the support of 45.5 per of decided voters with the Liberals at 29.5 per cent, the NDP at 16.9 per cent and the Greens at 6.5 per cent.

The Tories are up one point from another Nanos poll released on Wednesday while the Liberals are down 2.5 points. Both the NDP (up 0.5 points) and the Greens (up 1.4 points) also appeared to make modest gains, albeit within the margin of error.

“The Ford Progressive Conservatives maintain a significant lead over the Crombie Liberals, holding a strong advantage in four out of five regions. Meanwhile, Toronto remains highly competitive. In the Golden West region, the PCs are ahead, with the Liberals and NDP locked in a tie for second place,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, in his analysis accompanying the survey.

The survey, which was commissioned by CTV News, found that the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) have the support of 38.1 per cent of decided voters in Toronto compared to 37.1 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP were third in Toronto with the support of 19.8 per cent of decided voters while 3.4 per cent of decided voters said that they would vote for the Green party.

Despite Toronto’s narrow race, 40.6 per cent of Ontario residents still choose Ford as their “preferred premier.” Meanwhile, Bonnie Crombie holds 26.2 per cent support, Marit Stiles 14.4 per cent and Mike Schreiner 7.5 per cent.

Public transit over highways:

In separate nightly tracking results from a survey conducted earlier this week, 2 in 5 Ontarians say want the next government to prioritize expanding public transit rather than building highways.

“Expanding public transit tops the importance over expanding highways in every region of the province of Ontario,” Nanos said. “Women and Ontarians under 35 years of age have greater comparative appetites for expanding public transit.”

The survey finds that support for more public transit is the strongest among Torontonians, women, and Ontarians under 35.

The Progressive Conservatives have promised to continue their subway expansion plan in Toronto and increase GO service on more lines. They also vowed to build a freight rail bypass along the Highway 407 corridor in Peel Region to take freight rail around Toronto.

As of last week, Doug Ford ‘doubled down’ on his promise to dig a $15 billion tunnel under Highway 401, declaring it as a “serious” plan that will “get Ontario drivers moving again.”

As for the Liberals, they pledge to install safety barriers on all TTC subway platforms and hire hundreds of special constables to make transit safer. The Ontario Green Party has promised to cancel Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass and expand GO service.

Nanos Research conducts random interviews with a three-night rolling average of about 900 Ontario voters.

Both surveys have a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.