Ford’s PCs maintain 15-point lead as election nears, NDP gains ground on Liberals: Nanos survey

Latest survey from Nanos Research shows Ford's PCs maintain 15-point lead as election nears (CTV News file photo)

As election day nears with just four days to go, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives remain the frontrunners, widening their lead over the Liberals while the NDP continues to gain ground, a new survey by CTV News' official pollster Nanos Research suggests.

About 12 per cent of voters remain undecided.

The survey of 920 adults, released Sunday, found that the PCs have the support of 43.8 per cent of decided voters across Ontario, followed by the Liberals at 28.8 per cent, the NDP at 19.6 per cent, and the Greens at 5.1 per cent.

“The Progressive Conservatives lead by 15 points and are ahead of the other parties in four of five regions. Of note, the gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats is narrowing, and the NDP is neck-and-neck with the Liberals for second place in the Hamilton-Niagara Golden West Region and in Eastern and Northern Ontario,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist for Nanos Research.

An earlier Nanos Research survey released on Saturday had shown that support for the PC’s had dipped to its lowest level of the campaign reaching 42.6 per cent. However, that number has changed over the last 24 hours indicating support for the party has bounced back by about 1.2 per cent. The Liberals slip 1.7 per cent, the NDP climb 1.2 per cent and the Greens dip 1.1 per cent over the last day.

PCs regain support in the GTA

The latest survey shows the PCs recovering ground in the Greater Toronto Area, where support had previously dipped. Earlier this week, the party had fallen to 46.9 per cent in the GTA, down from 53.2 per cent. The latest tracking now places them at 51.1 per cent.

The Liberals remain in second place in the GTA with 30.7 per cent, followed by the NDP at 14.4 per cent and the Greens at 3.8 per cent.

Within the City of Toronto, however, Crombie’s Liberals continue to lead with 41.3 per cent support. The PCs trail at 33.6 per cent, while the NDP sits at 18 per cent and the Greens at 5.6 per cent.

Ford gains support among women

The PCs have long led among male voters, a trend that continues with 51.1 per cent of men supporting the party. The Liberals follow at 25.1 per cent, the NDP at 14.2 per cent, and the Greens at 6 per cent.

Among female voters, however, the race has noticeably shifted.

The previous Nanos survey had the Liberals narrowly ahead at 35.6 per cent, with the PCs close behind at 33.2 per cent. Now, the PCs have pulled ahead, leading with 36.5 per cent support among women, while the Liberals have slipped to 32.5 per cent. The NDP holds 25 per cent, and the Greens sit at 4.2 per cent.

Ford’s preferred premier numbers continue to decline

Despite the PCs regaining ground in ballot support, according to Nanos, Ford’s standing as the “preferred premier” has slipped for the second consecutive survey.

The latest numbers place him at 37.8 per cent, down from 38.6 per cent in the previous poll and 41.4 per cent before that.

Crombie has also seen a slight decline, now at 24.1 per cent, compared to 25.9 per cent in the last survey. Meanwhile, Stiles has gained support, now sitting at 17 per cent. Schreiner has also increased slightly to 8.1 per cent.

The survey was conducted using a three-day rolling sample of 300 interviews per day, with a total sample size of 920 adults. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.