Ford’s PCs maintain 15-point lead as advanced polls near: Nanos survey

Ontario PC Party Leader Doug Ford appears at a press conference in Pickering, Ont., Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young (The Canadian Press)

With days before some Ontarians begin voting in advance polls this week, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a significant lead while dominating in the key battleground of the Greater Toronto Area, a new survey by CTV News' official pollster Nanos Research suggests.

The survey of 915 adults, released Sunday, found that the PCs have the support of 45.2 per cent of decided voters across Ontario, followed by the Liberals at 29.5 per cent, the NDP at 17.7 per cent, and the Greens at 5.4 per cent.

About 8.8 per cent of respondents to the survey said that they were still unsure of who to vote for.

The numbers remain mostly unchanged from the last Nanos survey released on Saturday with the PCs up 0.6 points and the Liberals and NDP both down 0.3 points. The Greens are down 0.1 points.

“The Progressive Conservatives enjoy a 15-point advantage in ballot box support with about two weeks left in the election campaign. Ford has a comfortable advantage as the leader Ontarians would prefer as premier,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research.

PCs well ahead in the GTA

The survey suggests the Progressive Conservatives continue hold a commanding lead in the GTA, where they have the support of 56.7 per cent of decided voters. The Liberals trail at 30.9 per cent, while the NDP have 7.7 per cent support and the Green Party has 4.1 per cent.

Ford is also the ‘preferred’ choice for premier among GTA voters, with 46.4 per cent saying he is their preferred candidate. Crombie follows with 27.2 per cent support, while NDP Leader Marit Stiles sits at 10 per cent and Green Party leader Mike Shreiner is at 5.1 per cent.

Ford has higher support among men

Male voters continue to be a key pillar of support for Ford’s support, with 50 per cent of men saying they would prefer him as premier. The Tories had the support of 55.6 per cent of decided voters among men.

By comparison, when it comes to male voters and their preferred choice for premier, Crombie had 19.6 per cent support among men, while Stiles sits at 12.7 per cent and Shreiner sits at 6.9 per cent.

Ford is also ahead among with it comes to female voters' support where he leads with 30.4 per cent.

Crombie trails in second with 29 per cent, Stiles with 20.2 per cent, and Schreiner with 7.5 per cent.

Province-wide, Ford remains the preferred choice for premier with 40 per cent support. Crombie is second with 24.4 per cent, followed by Stiles at 16.5 per cent and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner at 7.2 per cent.

Four per cent of respondents said they preferred none of the candidates, while 7.9 per cent were unsure.

The survey was conducted using a three-day rolling sample of 300 interviews conducted each day and holds a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.