Ford’s PCs and Crombie’s Liberals ‘cruise at higher support levels’ from last election: Nanos survey

Chief data scientist for Nanos Research Nick Nanos joins CP24's Phil Perkins to break down the latest survey numbers for the Ontario election.

Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative party have a nearly 15 point lead with less than two weeks until Ontarians go to the polls but support for the Liberals is still above where it was ahead of the most recent provincial election in 2022, a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research suggests.

The survey of 925 adults, released Saturday, found that the PCs hold a comfortable lead with the support of 44.6 per cent of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 29.8 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent and the Green Party at 5.5 per cent.

About 7.8 per cent of respondents to the survey remain undecided.

“Both the Ford-led PC and Crombie-led Liberal parties continue to cruise at support levels higher than the last provincial election in 2022,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey. “The Stiles New Democrats register ballot numbers lower than those in 2022.”

Nanos Research has been conducted nightly tracking for CTV News throughout the Ontario election campaign.

Support for the Tories was mostly unchanged from the previous day’s survey (up 0.7 points). The Liberals were down 1.1 points while the NDP were up 0.9 points and the Green were down 0.3 points.

Male support for Ford a ‘crucial driver’ for the advantage

The survey also highlighted an overwhelming support from male voters for PCs.

According to the numbers, Ford is dominating among male voters holding on to 52.6 per cent support while Crombie follows in second place at 26.7.

In an interview speaking with CP24’s Phil Perkins, Nanos described the dominant male support as “a political man crush on Ford.”

“The massive 26-point advantage for the PCs among males is a crucial driver of the Ford advantage,” He noted in the survey results.

Ford had the support of 36.5 per cent of decided female voters while Crombie was at 32.9 per cent and Stiles was at 13.1 per cent. The Green Party had the support of 3.5 per cent of decided female voters.

Who do Ontarians ‘prefer’ as Premier?

Nanos polling suggests that Ford remains the top choice for premier with 39.9 per cent of respondents saying that he was their preferred candidate.

Meanwhile, Crombie continues to trail at 26.1 per cent. In third is Stiles with 15. 7 per cent and Green Party Leader Mike Shreiner in fourth at 7.2 per cent.

Three per cent of Ontario residents did not identify a preferred premier and 7.9 per cent said they were unsure.

The survey randomly selected 925 Ontario adults and holds a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.