A ‘comfortable advantage:’ PCs have 15-point lead over Liberals as campaign enters last week, Nanos survey finds

Nanos Research Ontario election survey results released on Feb. 24, 2025.

As the Ontario election campaign enters its final week, PC Leader Doug Ford continues to have a “competitive advantage” over Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals in all regions except the city of Toronto, a new Nanos Research survey shows.

The survey of 927 Ontario adults, released Monday, found that about 44 per cent of decided voters support the PCs, compared to 29 per cent who support the Liberals, 19.8 per cent who support the NDP, and 4.8 per cent who support the Green Party.

Among decided and undecided voters, 40 per cent said they would vote for the PCs, 26.4 per cent said they would vote Liberal, 18 per cent said they support the NDP, 4.4 per cent said they support the Green Party, 2.2 per cent selected “other,” and 9.1 per cent said they are still undecided.

“Comfortable advantage for Ford PCs continues going into the last week of the campaign. The PCs lead in all age groups while the New Democrats are ahead of the Liberals among voters under 35 years of age but trail Liberals among voters over 35 years of age,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

“On the preferred premier tracking Ford leads in all regions except Toronto, where Crombie is ahead.”

In the city of Toronto, about 39 per cent of decided voters said they would cast a ballot for the Liberals, versus 30.7 per cent would said they support the PCs, 24.9 per cent who said they support the NDP, and 4.3 per cent who said they would vote for the Green Party.

The PCs have a massive lead in the GTA, with 51 per cent of decided respondents saying they would vote for the party, compared to 30 per cent who said they would back the Liberals.

Ford continues to be the top pick for premier. About 39.1 per cent of respondents choose the PC leader, 23.7 per cent selected Crombie, 16,1 per cent chose NDP Leader Marit Stiles, and 7.7 per cent selected Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

The random survey, which interviewed respondents via online questionnaire and telephone, was conducted between Feb. 21 and Feb. 23. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.