International trade protects Sudbury from tariff impact, Canada chamber says

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is out with a new report on which of the country's largest cities would be hardest hit by tariffs.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce says Greater Sudbury would be the least affected of 41 Canadian cities by tariffs imposed by the United States.

A report authored by Stephen Tapp, the chamber’s chief economist, ranks which of Canada’s largest cities would be hardest hit should tariffs come into effect next month.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all non-energy imports from Canada, and a 10 per cent tariff on energy imports.

If he follows through on his threats, Tapp writes the moves could spark a recession on both sides of the border.

“We subsequently looked below the national numbers to analyze the potential tariff impacts for Canadian provinces,” he wrote in his report.

Focus on 41 cities

“This work revealed particular vulnerabilities for Alberta, Ontario and New Brunswick. This is because these provinces are highly trade-intensive and the vast majority of their exports go to the U.S. market.”

His analysis focused on the impact in 41 cities in Canada with a population of at least 100,000. The findings focus on how heavily dependent each city is on exports to the United States.

“Our modelling estimates that the tariff will impose the steepest hit for the value of Canada’s energy exports, which explains why the highest vulnerabilities are for Saint John, N.B., and Calgary,” the report said.

“The massive value at play from crude oil exports (with energy exports worth over $176 billion in 2024) and concerns of passing higher gas prices onto Americans explain why Trump applied a lower tariff on Canada’s energy exports (10 per cent versus 25 per cent for all other export categories).”

Sudbury ranks lowest, in part, because “exports of nickel and copper are reaching other international markets beyond the United States.”

The report said 11.5 per cent of our total exports head south of the border, the lowest of all cities surveyed. The data is from 2021.