Summer forecast for southern Quebec: here’s what weather agencies are predicting

Warmer, drier weather is on the way in southern Quebec, according to one forecast model. But others say it could be more of a wet summer.

Weather agencies have released their summer forecast for southern Quebec, but the season could look different depending on who you ask.

According to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the normal daytime high for Montreal in June, July and August is around 24 C. However, meteorologist Simon Legault says warmer weather is on the way.

“If we compare to past climatology for the past decades, we should be above those numbers for the coming season. [Our model] doesn’t say much about [whether it is] going to be a short and strong heat wave, or a general trend for the whole summer,” Legault explains.

• Current Montreal weather conditions

Legault says it could be a drier than usual summer, but concedes rainfall is harder to predict.

It’s a different tune altogether from forecasters like MétéoMédia, who are predicting rainy and cooler weather.

For Montrealers, it’s confirmation of what they already knew — that the only thing that’s certain about weather is its uncertainty.

ECCC admits that weather patterns can change quickly. Legault says opposite forecasts can be explained by different weather agencies making calculations based on different models.

“We know that those forecasts are not perfect and that we should be looking at the weather week by week when the week is starting, because we have a higher confidence when we are just a couple of days before the event,” the meteorologist says.

He adds the best practice is to think of the forecast as less of a prediction, and more of a trend.