Parti Québécois faces drop in support for sovereignty amid Trump threats

Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon speaks to the press in Montreal, Monday, Feb. 12, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

MONTREAL — With Canadians – and even Quebecers – rallying around the flag in the face of threats from the Trump administration, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois is struggling to find its footing.

The Quebec opposition party has been leading in the polls for more than a year, and leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a third referendum by 2030 if his party forms government in next year’s election.

But U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation have shaken up the political landscape in Quebec. Support for independence is suddenly lower than it has been in years, raising questions about whether the PQ needs to pivot away from sovereignty.

For now, the party insists it’s staying the course. “We believe it’s something that inspires Quebecers to have people who are faithful to their convictions and their values,” Pascal Paradis, a PQ member of the national assembly, said in a recent interview.

He said it’s interesting to see Canadian leaders defend the country’s sovereignty “tooth and nail” against Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state. He compared the wave of nationalism to Quebec’s own independence movement, questioning why it’s “good for Canada but not for Quebec.”

“We will stay true to our message,” he said.

That could make the PQ vulnerable. A recent Léger poll found support for Quebec independence had dipped to 29 per cent. Executive vice-president Sébastien Dallaire said that’s around the lowest level of support the polling firm has ever measured.

“It’s clearly related to the current context of increased patriotism in Canada, an increased feeling that we need to stick together and stand up to the United States,” he said.

Support for the Parti Québécois has also taken a hit since late last year, Dallaire said, though the party is still leading in the polls. So far, it’s the Quebec Liberals – rather than the governing Coalition Avenir Québec – whose political fortunes have ticked up.

“The Liberal brand in general, both at the federal and the provincial level, has been bolstered by what’s happening,” Dallaire said, adding that the Liberals are “more associated with the fight for Canadian unity.”

But the commitment to sovereignty is central to the PQ’s identity under the leadership of St-Pierre Plamondon. Dimitri Soudas, a political analyst and former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper, said the 48-year-old lawyer is the first PQ leader in a long time who hasn’t been “wishy-washy” on independence.

St-Pierre Plamondon took the reins of the PQ in 2020, when it was on the brink of collapse. The party had been reduced to 10 seats in the provincial legislature in the 2018 election, and would drop to three in 2022. Paradis won a fourth seat in a 2023 byelection.

“At the time, the strategy was simple,” Soudas said. “You have to crystallize the base.”

Since then, St-Pierre Plamondon has stood firm on his pledge to hold a referendum in a first mandate, even though support for sovereignty has never climbed much above 35 per cent in recent years. But that commitment could now turn into an “Achilles heel” in the context of Trump’s threats, Soudas said.

“If I was campaigning against them, I would campaign on one issue: the instability that the referendum would bring.”

Quebec Premier François Legault, whose popularity has waned after more than six years in office, has been quick to seize the opportunity, arguing now is not the time to prepare for a referendum.

But the PQ has not backed down. Last week, the party published a video on social media claiming the concept of Canadian unity is a myth and that Quebec would be better placed to defend its own interests and protect its border if it separated from Canada. “An independent Quebec would be stronger,” the video says.

Paradis said Canada has not presented a common front to the United States, with provinces such as Ontario and Alberta only looking out for themselves. “The results show that there was no Canadian shield, that belonging to Canada did not protect us against the tariff threat,” he said.

Antonine Yaccarini, a political analyst and former staffer for the PQ and the Coalition Avenir Québec, said St-Pierre Plamondon’s party must find a way to be taken more seriously on economic matters, rather than just on questions of identity.

But she also believes the PQ should hold steady on sovereignty. She said there’s a good chance support for independence will rebound if Quebecers don’t feel Ottawa has their interests at heart.

“I really think these issues will resurface very quickly,” she said. “And that Quebecers will look for someone to defend them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 23, 2025.

Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press