Federation of Quebec Chambers of Commerce anxious ahead of U.S. election

Impact of US election on Canada Quebec businesses are bracing for potential trade disruptions.

The Federation of Quebec Chambers of Commerce (FCCQ) is biting its nails while waiting for the results to come in for the U.S. election.

It's a stark choice between two candidates with very different visions for the United States, but whatever the outcome, the impact will be felt in Canada.

“There’s some concern about protectionism in both camps,” said Philippe Noel of the FCCQ, adding that many Quebec businesses are worried about the future of U.S.-Canada trade.

For example, the agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico is about to renew.

Former president Donald Trump promised tariffs of at least 10 per cent on all goods entering the country. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris was one of only 10 senators to vote against the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement.

McGill business professor Vivek Astvansh said much of Canada’s economy is built on free trade with the U.S.

"We are extremely, extremely dependent on the United States and that dependence is not mutual. It is unilateral. And we have not really made progress in lowering that dependence and trying to form better trade relations with other countries," he said.

According to the Business Development Bank of Canada, a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian goods sold in the U.S. would likely slash $7 billion from Canada’s GDP along with some 20,000 jobs.

"I think I, like all Canadians, I look forward to the outcome with a great level of anticipation and uncertainty," said Astvansh.

In Michigan, one of seven key swing states in this election, protecting the auto sector is a major issue. But, industry expert Patrick Anderson said free trade with Canada is not what voters are concerned about.

"This election has put trade policy and tariffs on the front burner and a lot of that has to do with things that Canada has nothing to do with," said Anderson of Anderson Economic Group.

He said Chinese investment, intellectual property theft, and electric vehicle subsidies are driving conversations about protectionism.

"I think both the Trump and likely Harris administrations would take into account the long standing and very important, and mutually beneficial trade relationship between Canada and the United States. I don't see that being threatened by the election," said Anderson.

Still, Canadian businesses will be watching the results of this election closely and bracing for whatever impact it might have.