Falling birth rates: a majority of Quebecers anticipate negative effects, according to a study

Cardus policy researcher Étienne-Alexandre Beauregard speaks about what the declining birth rate in Quebec will mean for the future of the province.

A study by the Cardus Institute shows that a majority of Quebecers believe that the province’s low birth rate — 1.33 children per woman — will have negative impacts on the province’s economy and culture.

The think tank commissioned a survey of Quebecers by the firm Léger, and the “findings are clear-cut.”

“In all cases, the majority of respondents anticipate that the falling birth rate will have negative implications for Quebec’s future,” writes the researcher who conducted the study, Étienne-Alexandre Beauregard.

Over 60 per cent cited economic growth (62 per cent).

Around 55 per cent believe the phenomenon will have consequences for the French language, Quebec culture and the provision of public services.

“At 1.33 children per woman, we are at a historic low in fertility, and this will have collective impacts for everyone, whether in terms of Quebec’s standing within Canada or in terms of public finances. It is a collective problem that we cannot really avoid,” the researcher emphasized in an interview with The Canadian Press.

Economic uncertainty and the cost of living

The study entitled “A Childless Quebec?” also cites a survey of Quebecers aged 19 conducted by the Ministry of Families and states that “90.3 per cent of respondents who wish to become parents want two or more children.”

“There is therefore a growing gap in Quebec between the desire for children, which remains above two, and the number of children born, which is falling year on year,” notes the study by the Cardus Institute, which defines itself as a “non-partisan research centre” operating within the “tradition of Christian social thought.”

“When we see that the desire is much higher than the number of births, we realize that there must be external factors at play here,” says the researcher.

He cites economic uncertainty and the cost of living as causes.

“One might assume that the rise in inflation and the increase in the cost of living following the COVID-19 pandemic are not unrelated to the sharp decline in fertility observed in Quebec and elsewhere since 2020,” writes Beauregard.

“Demographic winter”

But how can we emerge from this “demographic winter”? The researcher believes that the state must implement “pro-family policies” to enable couples who want children to fulfil their desire.

He cites as examples the creation of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan or the Bourassa government’s 1988 birth grant, which “offered $500 to parents for the first child, $1,000 for the second and up to $8,000 for third or subsequent children.”

“Before the program was introduced in 1987, Quebec’s total fertility rate was approximately 0.30 children per woman lower than Canada’s. By 1996, this gap had narrowed by 86 per cent,” writes Beauregard.

With the elections approaching, the man who also served as speechwriter for Premier François Legault hopes that the political parties will take up this issue.

“Baby bonus”

Sophie Mathieu, a lecturer at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke, also states that the fertility situation is a cause for concern, partly because couples are not having as many children as they would like.

“We are a French-speaking minority, and our demographic weight within Canada is declining. So we might ask ourselves: ‘What does this mean for the survival of our values and culture?’” she said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

However, she does not believe that measures such as a ‘baby bonus’, as seen in the late 1980s, are the solution, as they only increase the birth rate “in a very short-term way.”

“Couples had more children initially, but in the long term, this did not continue,” the professor stated.

Instead, we need to make home ownership more accessible, create more childcare places and improve work-life balance.

“Countries where women do not have to choose between being a worker and a mother are the ones that fare best,” explains the author of the book “Equality, Fertility and Motherhood.”

The Léger survey for the Cardus study was conducted online from Feb. 6 to 9, 2026, among 1,061 respondents residing in Quebec, aged 18 and over.

The data were weighted according to age, gender, region, mother tongue, level of education and the presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Quebec population. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.01 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on May 10, 2026.