Half of Canadians and Americans think their countries are in a recession now: poll

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Governors Working Session in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, Friday, Feb. 21, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Pool via AP

OTTAWA — As Canada stares down U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats of devastating tariffs, roughly half of Canadians and Americans believe their countries are in an economic recession right now, a new poll suggests.

The results of the Leger survey — which polled both Canadians and Americans — suggest that Canadian and Americans hold many similar views on the state of the economy and their personal financial status.

The poll also suggests that 39 per cent of Canadians who are currently employed are worried about losing their jobs within the next 12 months — a three-point increase since last month.

Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said that the results “add up to a long series of difficult moments.”

The poll was conduced between Feb. 14 and Feb. 17 and surveyed 1,550 Canadians and 1,000 Americans. Because it was conducted online, it can’t be assigned a margin of error.

The survey says that 50 per cent of Canadians and 51 per cent of Americans polled believe that both countries are already in a recession.

Neither country is experiencing a recession right now but the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates that Trump’s threatened 25 per cent, across-the-board tariffs would shrink Canada’s economy by $78 billion and push the country into a recession by next summer.

The chamber estimates the U.S. economy would also take a hit of US$467 billion.

The poll suggests that slightly more than half of Canadians — 54 per cent of respondents — consider their household finances to be in good shape.

Another 46 per cent report living from paycheque to paycheque, while 59 per cent of American respondents said the same thing.

Dallaire said that although the United States is a wealthy country with more economic clout than Canada, income inequality is also greater there because its social safety net is less robust.

“The big difference between the two countries is in Canada, you do have more protection, you do have more backup if things go south a little bit, but in the United States it can be much tougher if you’re not able to make ends meet,” he said.

The unemployment rate in Canada stood at 6.6 per cent in January 2025, Statistics Canada reported.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 22, 2025.

Jesmeen Gill, The Canadian Press