Below-average hurricane season expected for Atlantic Canada this year

Waves pound the shore in Eastern Passage, N.S. on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022.(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The organization says there’s a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 per cent chance of an above-normal season, and a 55 per cent chance of a below-normal season.

The NOAA expects to see between eight and 14 named storms, with three-to-six likely strengthening to hurricanes. Of those, one-to-three may become major hurricanes, which is considered Category 3 or higher. Category 3 wind strength begins at 178 km/h.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre also held its briefing for the 2026 season Thursday afternoon, echoing the forecast and reasoning from the NOAA.

“Going back to the 1970s, about 35-to-40 per cent of the storms in a season will pass through the Canadian response area,” noted Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Hurricane Centre.

“About one or two on average having some level of impact on land areas.”

The agency touched on competing weather factors for the forecast this year. Supporting more hurricane development is above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and weak trade winds. Warm ocean waters are the fuel for hurricanes and weaker winds over the Atlantic can support the development of the storms.

Working against hurricane development this year is the expectation that a strong El Nino will develop in the southern Pacific.

El Nino is the presence of warmer ocean waters stretching from the central Pacific towards the coastline of South America. It is associated with a strengthening of the upper-level winds above the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic. The stronger winds aloft can work to disrupt the development of tropical storms and hurricanes or weaken a storm that has already developed.

The forecast only covers the expected number of storms for the season. It does not predict where, or when, or how likely any given storm may impact land. That needs to be handled on a storm-by-storm basis.

It only takes one landfalling storm to make it a “bad season” and Atlantic Canada is an area at risk of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. Atlantic Canadians are encouraged to have a storm plan prepared ahead of hurricane season.